Alternative prediction models for data scarce environment

An accident modelling approach is used to assess the safety of a hydrogen station as part of a ground transportation network. The method incorporates prevention barriers associated to human factors, management and organizational failures in a risk assessment framework. Failure probabilities of these barriers and end-states events are predicted using Fault Tree Analysis and Event Tree Analysis respectively. Results from the case study considered revealed the capability of the proposed method in estimating the likelihood of various outcomes as well as predicting their future probabilities. In addition, the scheme offers an opportunity to provide dynamic adjustment by updating the failure probability with actual plant data. Results from the analysis can be used to plan maintenance and management of change as required by the plant condition. © 2014 Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. All rights reserved.