An accident model for arctic shipping

This paper examines historical Arctic marine accidents from 1995-2004. It was seen during this time period that sinking and grounding of (fishing) vessels was the most common type of Arctic marine accident. A comprehensive accident model is presented to describe Arctic shipping accidents and their causation factors. The accident model is based on epidemiological concepts which explain how non-sequential factors result in an unwanted outcome, analogous to disease spreading through a human body. The causation factors are nonsequential and non-linearly dependent. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through examination of two past accidents: the Kolskaya and the Kulluk. Detailed description of how the accident model could be used for predictive accident modelling and risk analysis of Arctic shipping scenarios is also presented.