Developing adaptation pathways for climate-impacted and at risk fisheries in south-east Australia

Although changes in climate are already impacting marine ecosystems, the development of adaptation options has lagged considerably behind that of terrestrial systems. Regions experiencing high exposure to key climate drivers, like south-east Australia, represent prime locations for assessing impacts and developing, evaluating and implementing adaptation options to cope with a changing future. Institutes within the five jurisdictions of the south-east have been proactive in establishing a formal collaborative structure (the South East Australia Program) to facilitate linkages between biophysical, socio-economic and governance domains, providing solid foundations to develop and implement adaptation options. Using rock lobster, abalone, snapper and blue grenadier fisheries as case studies, we detail how climate change may intersect with the specific management tools and structures for each fishery and use a combination of stock projections, scenario development and identification of critical thresholds to generate likely future scenarios. Development of adaptation pathways, in close consultation with industry and resource managers, will allow a balanced combination of management responses that can be introduced now, through to medium and longer-term responses. Central to our approach is the development of a clear understanding of what values the fisheries are being managed for by identifying objectives of management and understanding how different groups of stakeholders weight these. This will allow adaptation options to be ranked, highlight where stakeholder conflict may arise, and enable relevant performance indicators and metrics to be identified, in a transparent and contextually relevant framework.