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Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the Southern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-24, 21:00 authored by Massonnet, F, Phillip ReidPhillip Reid, Jan LieserJan Lieser, Bitz, C, Fyfe, J, William HobbsWilliam Hobbs
The SIPN South project is an international, coordinated initiative endorsed by the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP), that aims at identifying the skill of current seasonal predictions of sea ice around Antarctica. Here, we review and analyze the results of five years of predictions of summer sea ice conducted by 20 groups since 2017, having contributed together more than 1000 forecasts. A wide range of approaches is considered, ranging from statistical data-driven to dynamical process-based models. We evaluate the ability of the forecasts to reproduce observed sea ice area at the circumpolar and regional levels and their skill relative to trivial forecasts (climatology, persistence). We find that a substantial spread exists already at day one in the dynamical forecasts, pointing at problems with the initialization. We also find that the forecasts based on statistical modeling perform generally better than forecasts based on dynamical modeling.


Publication title

EGU General Assembly 2022 Book of Abstracts




Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Event title

EGU General Assembly 2022

Event Venue

Vienna, Austria & Online

Date of Event (Start Date)


Date of Event (End Date)


Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Antarctic and Southern Ocean ice dynamics

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