Exploring adaptation options across food value chains – the role of climate futures

Research regarding climate change impacts and adaptation in primary industries has traditionally been focused on the production activities of individual sectors. Whilst there are a number of cases where impacts have been scaled from local to national and global scales, very few have employed a whole-of-systems approach to capture post farm gate value adding activities. Framing systems in this way connects all the elements from producer to consumer and allows complexities, dynamics and uncertainties to be more effectively considered. Successful management of value chains requires effective co-ordination of its elements, highlighting the importance and dependency of information flows along the chain. Thus, any study assessing the impacts and adaptation options associated with climate change needs to incorporate the physical, social, economic and policy dimensions that will affect the value chain. This approach has been termed ‘linked futures’ and describes a partial-consensus expert-elicitation process to develop linked scenarios or storylines. As part of this presentation we will discuss the results of employing the “linked future’ approach with two major Australian food-based value chains and show how it can result in more action orientated outcomes for stakeholders.