Four year trends in emergency department presentations in Tasmania

Objectives: To describe the profile of ED presentations by Tasmanian residents to Tasmanian EDs over four financial years, 2010/11 to 2013/14.

Method: Emergency department presentation data for four financial years, 2010/11 to 2013/14, were obtained from the Department of Health and Human Services. Descriptive statistics were used to observe for trends in ED presentations in Tasmanian, as well as trends in regional presentations. Official Australian Bureau of Statistics population estimates were used to calculate per capita presentations. Regression analysis was undertaken to test if trends were statistically significant.

Results: ED presentations by Tasmanian residents to Tasmanian EDs increased by 3.4% in the four year period 2010/11 to 2013/14. The greatest percentage increases were seen in higher acuity patients and in those aged 5-9. Regional variations identified included an increase in presentations of 16% in the South, 5% in the North and a decrease in presentations of 3.9% in the North West. Per capita presentations were consistently highest in the North West and lowest in the South. The South recorded statistically significant increases in presentations across all age bands less than 60 in triage categories 4 and 5 (p = 0.00) . In triage categories 1-3 in the South, there was a statistically significant increase in presentations in those aged over 75 (p = 0.037).

Conclusion: The increase in ED presentations by residents of Tasmania is unexplained by state population growth. Analysis of regional data indicates the increases are predominantly driven by presentations in the South. Research investigating access to care in the South of Tasmania may help to explain the growth in older patients presenting with high acuity conditions.