Governance dimensions of key Great Barrier Reef issues under climate change - a Whitsunday case study

The 2009 Outlook Report for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park identified climate change as the most serious long-­‐term threat to the health of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Despite the values and threats to the reef related to climate change being well understood, and good planning processes established by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), the likely outcomes for the reef were nevertheless poor. GBRMPA's response was to maximise resilience of the system by reducing other stressors such as increased sediments and nutrients to provide the best chance of improving outcomes. Most of these other stressors arise from management of the adjacent coastal zone where the capacity of GBRMPA to reduce these stressors depends on governance arrangements where responsibility lies primarily at State and local levels. The Outlook Report identified the lack of effective governance for mitigating and adapting to climate change as a deficiency, particularly a lack of consistency in coastal planning to manage land-­‐based impacts on the GBR. While shared governance arrangements in the marine area between the Commonwealth and State governments have withstood many tests over nearly four decades, and many of the elements required for an adaptive governance arrangement to address climate changes impacts are in place, extension of this shared governance approach to management of key coastal impacts is likely to be difficult. We present the outcomes of a scenario approach that developed narratives of possible biodiversity outcomes for the Whitsundays if current governance and management arrangements are not reformed. These show that reform of management arrangements for the terrestrial/marine and coastal interface is essential to building GBR system resilience.