posted on 2023-05-23, 10:40authored byJohnson, F, Christopher White, Van Dijk, A, Ekstrom, M, Evans, JP, Jakob, D, Kiem, AS, Leonard, M, Rouillard, A, Westra, S
One of the open questions about climate change is how future flood risk in Australia will change. Although changes to rainfall extremes are expected in most locations, it is not clear how these changes translate into flood risk due to the potential additional feedback of altered catchment characteristics (e.g., storage volumes, soil moisture, vegetation cover, fire disturbance) on runoff due instrumental period in Australia but it is not known if this is due to changes in population densities, increased infrastructure in flood prone locations (the exposure), improved reporting or actual changes in the occurrence of flood-producing meteorological events (the hazard). This paper reviews the existing literature on historical and expected future flooding in Australia, focusing on the flood hazard. Trends and changes in flood-producing mechanisms are also reviewed. Three flood case studies, namely the 2007 Pasha Bulker storm, the flood characteristics of the Fortescue Marsh area in the Pilbara and the 1956 Murray River floods are used to highlight the complexities of flood behaviour and to illustrate some open research questions. We show that short instrumental records, large natural variability and the interrelated nature of other catchment changes limit our ability at this stage to understand how the flood hazard has changed in the historical period. Research efforts to both address this gap and continue to develop methods to best use projections from climate models are required to quantify future flood hazard. This information can then serve as an input to risk models that combine flood hazard with projections information, flood exposure and vulnerability.
History
Publication title
36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The art and science of water
Editors
ACTEA
Pagination
1284-1291
ISBN
9781922107497
Department/School
School of Engineering
Publisher
Engineers Australia
Place of publication
Barton, ACT
Event title
36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium
Event Venue
Hobart, Tasmania
Date of Event (Start Date)
2015-12-07
Date of Event (End Date)
2015-12-10
Rights statement
Copyright unknown
Repository Status
Restricted
Socio-economic Objectives
Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts)