In recent years, more and more systems have been designed to affect users’ decisions for realizing certain system goals. However, most of these systems only focus on affecting users’ short-term or one-off behaviors, while ignoring the maintenance of users’ long-term engagement. In this light, we intend to design a novel approach which focuses on incentivizing users’ long-term engagement. In this paper, inspired by the use of Markov Decision Process (MDP), we first formally model the process of a user’s decision-making under long-term incentives. Subsequently, we propose the MDP-based Incentive Estimation (MDP-IE) approach for determining the value of an incentive and the requirement of obtaining that incentive. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively sustain users’ long-term engagement. Furthermore, the experiments also demonstrate that incentivizing users’ long-term engagement is more beneficial than one-off or short-term approaches.