Modelling future climate scenarios for North West Tasmania

Modelling future climate scenarios for North West Tasmania has shown that the mean number of days/annum that the moving 10 day mean daily pasture growth rate (PGR; kg DM/ha.day) is in deficit (defined as PGR < 15 kg DM/ha.day) is predicted to decline from 190 days/annum in the baseline period of years (1971 to 2000) to 167 days/annum during the years 2031 to 2060. In addition, the mean number of days/annum that the moving 10 day mean daily PGR is in surplus (defined as PGR > 30 kg DM/ha.day) is predicted to increase from 118 days/annum in the baseline period of years to 138 days/annum during the years 2031 to 2060. Changes to farm management will be required to most effectively capture the predicted additional pasture production while still needing to alleviate the inter-annual variations in pasture deficits.