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85805 - Reliability Assessment of Ship Powering Performance Extrapolations.pdf (9.38 MB)

Reliability assessment of ship powering performance extrapolations using Monte Carlo methods

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conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 07:47 authored by Kamal, IM, Jonathan BinnsJonathan Binns, Neil Bose, Giles Thomas
This paper describes the application of a practical method for uncertainty analysis, in which the uncertainties in all error sources are considered individually and simultaneously in the extrapolation of ship powering prediction. Such uncertainty has been investigated by utilising the JTTCl 978 performance prediction method and an application of Monte Carlo simulations. The error sources are: the torque, thrust, towing force, propeller revolution from the self-propulsion test; the resistance force and the model speed from the resistance test; and the torque and thrust coefficient from the open water test. A case study was conducted using available sea trials and towing tank experimental data of the RTV Bluefin, a research and training vessel owned and operated by the Australian Maritime College (AMC), see Table 1 for main particulars. The levels of uncertainty in ship powering were obtained by choosing a random sample from the error sources and repeating the calculation a large number of times. Then the distributions of the simulation results were used to determine the uncertainty in the total result.

History

Publication title

Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Marine Propulsors

Editors

J Binns, R Brown, N Bose

Pagination

454-460

ISBN

9780646903347

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania

Place of publication

Tasmania, Australia

Event title

3rd International Symposium on Marine Propulsors

Event Venue

Launceston, Tasmania, Australia

Date of Event (Start Date)

2013-05-05

Date of Event (End Date)

2013-05-08

Rights statement

Copyright 2013 smp chair committee (Kourosh Koushan and Sverre Steen)

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Domestic passenger water transport (e.g. ferries)