Safety analysis of a new and innovative transhipping concept: a comparison of two Bayesian network models

The floating harbour transhipper (FHT) is a new and innovative concept designed to improve the efficiency of bulk commodity export. As with all new and untested maritime systems, a rigorous safety analysis is essential prior to the operation’s launch. Sophisticated tools, such as Bayesian networks, are increasingly being adopted for safety analysis in the maritime industry. Bayesian networks have predominately been used to replace fault trees due to their flexibility and improved handling of uncertainty. However, when applied to complex socio-technical systems Bayesian networks, as currently used, inherit many of the same shortcomings as traditional risk-based methodologies. These limitations are not indicative of the methods potential. This paper compares the traditional approach for developing Bayesian networks with an approach based on a foundation of resilience engineering. Both models were applied to an aspect of manoeuvring during the FHT’s operation. The resilience-based approach successfully developed a representative network. The two approaches led to vastly different models, both in terms of structure and parameters. However, the descriptive approach of resilience-based model produced more proactive safety recommendations and, unlike the traditional model, serves as a knowledge base for future investigation.