Sensitivity analysis for climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation projection with pasture models

The development of climate adaptation services requires an improved accuracy in model projections for climate change impacts on pastures. Moreover, changes in grassland management need to be tested in terms of their adaptation and mitigation potential. Within AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project), based on the C₃MP protocol for crops, we explore climate change impacts on future greenhouse gas emissions and removals in temperate grassland systems. Site calibrated models are used to provide projections under probabilistic climate change scenarios, which are defined by a combination of air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO₂ changes. This design provides a test of yield, greenhouse gas emissions (N₂O and CH₄) and C sequestration sensitivity to climate change drivers. Moreover, changes in animal stocking density and in grazing vs. cutting are explored to test potential mitigation and adaptation options. This integrated approach has been tested for 12 models applied to 19 grassland sites over three continents and is seen as a pre-requisite for the use of models in the development of climate adaptation and mitigation services for grazing livestock.