Treatment of uncertainty in hydroiogic modeling: Handling conflict using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence

The study of uncertainty has become an integral part of water resources research due to its impacts on decision-making. In addition to traditional probabilistic approaches, studies increasingly incorporate newer methods such as the fuzzy set theory for a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. Such methods are capable of addressing uncertainties such as vagueness and ambiguity for which probabilistic methods have either been found inappropriate or impossible. The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) of evidence can handle different types of uncertainty in a formal unified framework. This work uses DST to reduce conflict in hydroiogic data by fusion. Data fusion is carried out using three DST combination rules: Dempster-Shafer, Yager and the sixth proportional conflict redistributing rule (PCR6). This paper is concluded with a number of recommendations regarding the use of DST framework in general, as well as some remarks about the outcome from each combination rule.