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A kernel density estimation approach of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone formation and the association with convective available potential energy and equivalent potential temperature

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 11:08 authored by Wahiduzzaman, M, Yeasmin, A
Tropical cyclone (TC) is the one of the most devastating weather systems which causes enormous loss of life and property in the coastal regions of North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries. TC modelling can help decision-makers and inhabitants in shoreline zones to take necessary planning and actions in advance. To model TC activity, it is essential to know the factors that affect TC activities. The formation of tropical cyclones in the NIO basin is significantly modulated by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Equivalent Potential Temperature (EPT). In this paper, a kernel density estimation approach (KDE) has been developed and evaluated to determine the extent of this modulation for the period 1979-2016. The distribution of genesis was defined by the KDE approach and validated by both classical and standard plug-in estimators. Results suggest a strong correlation of TC genesis densities with CAPE in the month of October-November (post-monsoon season) followed by the month of April-May (pre-monsoon season). Findings indicate the potential for predicting TC activities in the NIO well before the TC season.


Publication title

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics










Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies


Springer-Verlag Wien

Place of publication

Sachsenplatz 4-6, Po Box 89, Vienna, Austria, A-1201

Rights statement

Copyright 2019 Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Atmospheric processes and dynamics

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