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A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment

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posted on 2023-05-19, 09:41 authored by Denholm, L, Nicholas Beeton, Lawrence ForbesLawrence Forbes, Scott CarverScott Carver
Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.

Funding

Department of Health Western Australia

History

Publication title

Letters in Biomathmatics

Volume

4

Pagination

187-206

ISSN

2373-7867

Department/School

School of Natural Sciences

Publisher

Taylor and Francis

Place of publication

Scotland

Rights statement

Copyright 2017 The Authors Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Control of pests, diseases and exotic species in terrestrial environments

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