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A network based approach to envisage potential accidents in offshore process facilities

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 22:40 authored by Md Baksh, Rouzbeh AbbassiRouzbeh Abbassi, Vikrambhai GaraniyaVikrambhai Garaniya, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan
Envisaging potential accidents in large scale offshore process facilities such as Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) is complex and could be best characterized through evolving scenarios. In the present work, a new methodology is developed to incorporate evolving scenarios in a single model and predicts the likelihood of accident. The methodology comprises; (a) evolving scenario identification, (b) accident consequence framework development, (c) accident scenario likelihood estimation, and (d) ranking of the scenarios. Resulting events in the present work are modeled using a Bayesian network approach, which represents accident scenarios as cause-consequences networks. The methodology developed in this article is compared with case studies of ammonia and Liquefied Natural Gas from chemical and offshore process facility, respectively. The proposed method is able to differentiate the consequence of specific events and predict probabilities for such events along with continual updating of consequence probabilities of fire and explosion scenarios taking into account. The developed methodology can be used to envisage evolving scenarios that occur in the offshore oil and gas process industry; however, with further modification it can be applied to different sections of marine industry to predict the likelihood of such accidents.

History

Publication title

Process Safety Progress

Volume

36

Pagination

178-191

ISSN

1547-5913

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Place of publication

USA

Rights statement

Copyright 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Oil and gas extraction

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