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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 06:39 authored by Son NguyenSon Nguyen, Shu-Ling ChenShu-Ling Chen, Yuquan Du, Wenming ShiWenming Shi
Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

History

Publication title

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review

Volume

129

Pagination

203-227

ISSN

1366-5545

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

Elsevier

Place of publication

Oxford, England

Rights statement

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)

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