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A robust risk assessment methodology for safety analysis of marine structures under storm conditions
journal contributionposted on 2023-05-19, 17:24 authored by Mohammad AbaeiMohammad Abaei, Ehsan ArzaghiEhsan Arzaghi, Rouzbeh AbbassiRouzbeh Abbassi, Vikrambhai GaraniyaVikrambhai Garaniya, Shuhong ChaiShuhong Chai, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan
Accidents involving vessels and/or offshore structures (henceforth referred to as marine structures) may pose high financial, environmental and fatality risk. To effectively manage these risks a methodical approach is required to model accident load and the stochastic behaviour of the marine structure that are arising from storm effects. This paper introduces a proactive framework that identifies and considers all the initial relevant risks. Compared to the conventional approaches that rely on precursor data for accident modelling, the developed methodology utilizes the critical stochastic variables directly from the hydrodynamic analysis of the floating structure. For this purpose, a novel numerical model is proposed to replicate a storm based on Endurance Wave Analysis (EWA) method. This approach reduces the computational cost (time and load) of the simulations. The critical stochastic variables are subsequently used in Bayesian Network (BN) to develop the risk model. The EWA and BN based integrated methodology assists in better understanding of accident causation and associated risk in changing operational conditions. The application of the methodology is demonstrated through a Floating Storage Unit (FSU) experiencing capsizing scenario.
Publication titleOcean Engineering
Department/SchoolAustralian Maritime College
PublisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
Place of publicationThe Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Ox5 1Gb
Rights statementCopyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd.