139520 - Antarctic verification of the Australian Numerical Weather Prediction Model.pdf (4.97 MB)
Download fileAntarctic verification of the Australian Numerical Weather Prediction Model
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 15:20 authored by Schroeter, BJE, Reid, P, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel Bindoff, Michael, KJThe Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Global (ACCESS-G) features an atmosphere-only numerical weather prediction (NWP) suite used operationally by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to forecast weather conditions for the Antarctic. The current operational version of the forecast model, the Australian Parallel Suite v2 (APS2), has been used operationally since early 2016. To date, the performance of the model has been largely unverified for the Antarctic and anecdotal reports suggest challenges for model performance in the region. This study investigates the performance of ACCESS-G south of 50°S over 2017 and finds that model performance degrades toward the poles and in proportion to forecast horizon against a range of performance metrics. The model exhibits persistent negative surface and mean sea level pressure biases around the Adelie Land coast, which is linked to the underrepresentation of model winds to the west, and driven by positive screen temperature biases that inhibit modeled katabatic outflow. These results suggest that an improved representation of boundary layer parameterization could be implemented to improve model performance in the region.
History
Publication title
Weather and ForecastingVolume
34Issue
4Pagination
1081-1096ISSN
0882-8156Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Amer Meteorological SocPlace of publication
45 Beacon St, Boston, USA, Ma, 02108-3693Rights statement
Copyright 2019 American Meteorological SocietyRepository Status
- Restricted