Belonging beyond crisis: Predictors are stable in higher education, despite a pandemic

This study examines the stability of predictors of belonging among higher education students in Australia during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), extending previous research from 2013 to 2019. Utilizing data from the Australian Student Experience Survey (SES) (n = 733,625), the research employs machine learning techniques, including boosted trees modeling, to analyze the factors influencing students’ sense of belonging. Despite the disruptive impact of the pandemic on higher education, the study reveals that the primary predictors of belonging remained largely consistent with pre-pandemic findings. Key factors include overall educational experience, opportunities for student interaction, and support for settling into university life. The study observes a slight increase in model precision during the pandemic period, suggesting a potential homogenisation of student experiences. These findings contribute to the emerging field of belonging analytics and have implications for institutional strategies aimed at fostering student belonging in higher education, particularly in times of crisis. These findings indicate that the core predictors of belonging were resilient even amid significant social disruption.