University Of Tasmania
155559 - Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive Optimised Crop Plans (1).pdf (1.19 MB)

Business as usual versus climate-responsive, optimised crop plans – A predictive model for irrigated agriculture in Australia in 2060

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 16:43 authored by Lewis, A, Erin MontgomeryErin Montgomery, Lewis, M, Randall, M, Schiller, K
Climate change is impacting people’s lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia are evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust—they are able to simultaneously consider many climate change models—giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.


Publication title

Water Resources Management






School of Information and Communication Technology


Springer Netherlands

Place of publication


Rights statement

© The Author(s) 2023. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license (

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Water policy (incl. water allocation); Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts); Management of water consumption by plant production