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Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 10:02 authored by Merino, G, Barange, M, Julia BlanchardJulia Blanchard, Harle, J, Holmes, R, Allen, I, Allison, EH, Badjeck, MC, Dulvey, NK, Holt, J, Jennings, S, Mullon, C, Rodwell, LD
Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.

History

Publication title

Global Environmental Change. Part A

Volume

22

Issue

4

Pagination

795-806

ISSN

0959-3780

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Elsevier Sci Ltd

Place of publication

The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox5 1Gb

Rights statement

Copyright 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change

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