University of Tasmania
Browse

File(s) not publicly available

Climate Change Detection and Attribution: Beyond Mean Temperature Signals

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-16, 20:10 authored by Hegerl, GC, Karl, TR, Allen, M, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel Bindoff, Gillett, N, Karoly, D, Zhang, X, Zwiers, F
A significant influence of anthropogenic forcing has been detected in global- and continental-scale surface temperature, temperature of the free atmosphere, and global ocean heat uptake. This paper reviews outstanding issues in the detection of climate change and attribution to causes. The detection of changes in variables other than temperature, on regional scales and in climate extremes, is important for evaluating model simulations of changes in societally relevant scales and variables. For example, sea level pressure changes are detectable but are significantly stronger in observations than the changes simulated in climate models, raising questions about simulated changes in climate dynamics. Application of detection and attribution methods to ocean data focusing not only on heat storage but also on the penetration of the anthropogenic signal into the ocean interior, and its effect on global water masses, helps to increase confidence in simulated large-scale changes in the ocean. To evaluate climate change signals with smaller spatial and temporal scales, improved and more densely sampled data are needed in both the atmosphere and ocean. Also, the problem of how model-simulated climate extremes can be compared to station-based observations needs to be addressed. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.

History

Publication title

Journal of Climate

Volume

19

Issue

20

Pagination

5058-5077

ISSN

0894-8755

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Place of publication

Boston, USA

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Social impacts of climate change and variability

Usage metrics

    University Of Tasmania

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC