Climate change prospects for freshwater fisheries in the tropical Pacific: An overview of production and management strategies to adapt to population growth and climate change

Freshwater fisheries in the tropical Pacific play an important role in the food security, livelihoods and culture of people living in inland areas. Human populations in the region are projected to increase by 50% by 2030, increasing the importance of fresh fish as a source of animal protein for human nutrition. A priority of fisheries management is, therefore, to increase fisheries production to meet demand, and to develop strategies to maintain food security and government revenue in the face of climate change. Analysis of information on freshwater environments and projections for B1 and A2 climate change scenarios to 2035 and 2100 identified that equatorial zones are likely to receive an increase in rainfall of up to 20%, leading to increased river discharge of 33% by 2050 in places. In subtropical zones, rainfall is projected to decrease by as much as 20%. Increased river discharge and area of freshwater habitats are likely to dominate other responses to climate change, resulting in increases in fish production by as much as 12.5% by 2100. Sound catchment management to minimise adverse effects on fish habitats from economic development activities will be required to ensure that this potential benefit from climate change can be achieved