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125869 - Distinct child-to-adult body mass index trajectories - Final author version. docx.pdf (1.24 MB)

Distinct child-to-adult body mass index trajectories are associated with different levels of adult cardiometabolic risk

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posted on 2023-05-19, 17:59 authored by Marie-Jeanne BuscotMarie-Jeanne Buscot, Thomson, RJ, Juonala, M, Sabin, MA, Burgner, DP, Lehtimaki, T, Hutri-Kahonen, N, Viikari, JSA, Raitakari, OT, Costan MagnussenCostan Magnussen
Aims: The relationship between life-course body mass index (BMI) trajectories and adult risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is poorly described. In a longitudinal cohort, we describe BMI trajectories from early childhood to adulthood and investigate their association with CVD risk factors [Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), high-risk lipid levels, hypertension, and high carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT)] in adulthood (34-49 years).

Methods and results: Six discrete long-term BMI trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modelling among 2631 Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study participants (6-49 years): stable normal (55.2%), resolving (1.6%), progressively overweight (33.4%), progressively obese (4.2%), rapidly overweight/obese (4.3%), and persistent increasing overweight/obese (1.2%). Trajectories of worsening or persisting obesity were generally associated with increased risk of CVD outcomes in adulthood (24-49 years) [all risk ratios (RRs) >15, P < 0.05 compared with the stable normal group]. Although residual risk for adult T2DM could not be confirmed [RR = 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.14-8.23], participants who resolved their elevated child BMI had similar risk for dyslipidaemia and hypertension as those never obese or overweight (all RRs close to 1). However, they had significantly higher risk for increased cIMT (RR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.80-6.39).

Conclusion: The long-term BMI trajectories that reach or persist at high levels associate with CVD risk factors in adulthood. Stabilizing BMI in obese adults and resolving elevated child BMI by adulthood might limit and reduce adverse cardiometabolic profiles. However, efforts to prevent child obesity might be most effective to reduce the risk for adult atherosclerosis.


Publication title

European Heart Journal










Menzies Institute for Medical Research


W B Saunders Co Ltd

Place of publication

32 Jamestown Rd, London, England, Nw1 7By

Rights statement

Copyright 2018 The Authors. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in European Heart Journal following peer review. The version of record is available online at:

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Socio-economic Objectives

Clinical health not elsewhere classified

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