University Of Tasmania

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Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 18:19 authored by Khakzad, N, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan, Amyotte, P
Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes' theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Publication title

Reliability Engineering and System Safety








Australian Maritime College



Place of publication

Philadelphia PA 19103-2879 USA

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Renewable energy not elsewhere classified