Economic effects of sea surface temperature, aging population, and market distance on a small-scale fishery

We studied how local environmental and socio-economic factors impact fish supply and the price outcome of small-scale fisheries. We exploited day-to-day variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and cross-sectional differences in market distance and age of fishers to measure consumers’ responsiveness to price changes in a small-scale octopus fishery in Japan. Using the estimated demand parameters, we quantified the economic consequences of local socio-environmental factors in terms of changes in fishing revenue and consumer surplus. We found that increasing SST and an aging workforce increase the octopus supply and that consumers are responsive to price changes due to such supply shocks. Our results suggest that increasing SST and an aging workforce have positive net effects on fishing revenue and consumer surplus within the fishery. The octopus fishery provides a temporary source of income in the off-season of other species, smoothing the seasonal income variation of elderly fishers in the community.