University Of Tasmania
Little_et_al-2014-Conservation_Letters.pdf (1.24 MB)
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Environmental derivatives, risk analysis, and conservation management

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 08:59 authored by Richard LittleRichard Little, Parslow, J, Fay, G, Grafton, RQ, Smith, ADM, Punt, AE, Tuck, GN
Two key challenges in conservation management are: (1) how to quantify and manage the risk that natural populations will fall below critical thresholds and (2) how to fund recovery plans should a population do so. Statistically estimated, process-based simulation models of two distinct fish populations are used to forecast the species population levels, and capture the risk of crossing a management defined trigger point. We show how to calculate the environmental derivative price, which is the amount a risk-neutral investor would require for promising a pay-out should the species abundance fall below the trigger level. The approach provides the potential for environmental derivatives to support species recovery, and a method for measuring the underlying "health" of a managed population and calculating risk-cost tradeoffs among alternative management strategies.


Publication title

Conservation Letters








Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies


Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2013 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Other environmental management not elsewhere classified