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Estimation of the incubation period of COVID19 in Vietnam

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posted on 2023-05-20, 20:40 authored by Bui, LV, Nguyen, HT, Levine, H, Nguyen, HN, Nguyen, T-A, Thuy Nguyen, Nguyen, TT, Do, TTT, Pham, NT, Bui, MH

Objective: To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Methods: Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models.

Results: A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.89-8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CrI 3.05-5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection.

Conclusion: This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks.

History

Publication title

PloS One

Volume

15

Issue

12

Article number

0243889

Number

0243889

Pagination

1-9

ISSN

1932-6203

Department/School

Menzies Institute for Medical Research

Publisher

Public Library of Science

Place of publication

United States

Rights statement

Copyright 2020 Bui et al. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Preventive medicine

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