posted on 2023-05-17, 11:13authored byKatsman, CA, Sterl, A, Beersma, JJ, van den Brink, HW, Church, JA, Hazeleger, W, Kopp, RE, Kroon, D, Kwadijk, J, Lammersen, R, Lowe, J, Oppenheimer, M, Plag, HP, Ridley, J, von Storch, H, Vaughan, DG, Vellinga, P, Vermeersen, LLA, van de Wal, RSW, Weisse, R
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/highimpact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.
History
Publication title
Climatic Change: An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to The Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change
Volume
109
Issue
3-4
Pagination
617-645
ISSN
0165-0009
Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publ
Place of publication
Van Godewijckstraat 30, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 3311 Gz
Rights statement
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/