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146105 - Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.pdf (892.99 kB)

Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 01:45 authored by Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouichi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, TJ, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, TL, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Benjamin Galton-FenziBenjamin Galton-Fenzi, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, NR, Gregory, JM, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, MJ, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, NC, Kleiner, T, Kuipers Munneke, P, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscombe, WH, Little, CM, Lowry, DP, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, SF, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Ruckamp, M, Schlegel, N-J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, RS, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, LD, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T, Zwinger, T
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.


Publication title

Geophysical Research Letters





Article number









Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies


Amer Geophysical Union

Place of publication

2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009

Rights statement

© 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Other environmental policy, climate change and natural hazards not elsewhere classified

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