Globally consistent influences of seasonal precipitation limit grassland biomass response to elevated CO2

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) should stimulate biomass production directly via biochemical stimulation of carbon assimilation and indirectly via water savings caused by increased plant water use efficiency. Because of these water savings, the CO₂ fertilisation effect should be stronger in drier sites, yet large differences among experiments in grassland biomass response to elevated CO₂ appear unrelated to annual precipitation, preventing useful generalisations. Here we show that, as predicted, the impact of elevated CO₂ on biomass production in 19 globally-distributed temperate grassland experiments reduces as mean precipitation in seasons other than spring increases but, unexpectedly, rises as mean spring precipitation increases. Moreover, because sites with high spring precipitation also tend to have high precipitation at other times, these effects of spring and non-spring precipitation on the CO₂ response offset each other, constraining the response of ecosystem productivity to rising CO₂. This explains why previous analyses were unable to discern a reliable trend between site dryness and the CO₂ fertilisation effect. Thus, the CO₂ fertilisation effect in temperate grasslands worldwide will be constrained by their natural rainfall seasonality such that the stimulation of biomass by rising CO₂ could be substantially less than anticipated.