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Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change

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posted on 2023-05-18, 05:57 authored by Porfirio, LL, Harris, RM, Edward LefroyEdward Lefroy, Hugh, S, Gould, SF, Lee, G, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel Bindoff, Mackey, B
© 2014 Porfirio et al. Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

History

Publication title

PLoS ONE

Volume

9

Issue

11

Article number

e113749

Number

e113749

Pagination

1-21

ISSN

1932-6203

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Public Library of Science

Place of publication

United States

Rights statement

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate change adaptation measures (excl. ecosystem)

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