Mangrove ecosystem collapse during predicted sea-level rise: Holocene analogues and implications

Review of the stratigraphic record of mangrove ecosystems during sea-level changes of the Holocene shows that low islands will be particularly vulnerable to the loss of mangrove ecosystems during the rises of relative sea-level projected for the next 50 years. Mangrove ecosystems in these locations could keep up with a sea-level rise of up to 8-9 cm/100 years, but at rates of over 12 cm/100 years could not persist. This is due to low rates of sediment accumulation with limited sources from outside the mangrove zone, such as from rivers or soil erosion sources. Other factors contributing to mangrove persistence are the primary production rate of forests shoreline erosion due to deeper and more turbulent water and the frequency and intensity of tropical storms.