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Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 04:26 authored by Barry BrookBarry Brook, Traill, LW, Bradshaw, CJATheoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species’ intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.
History
Publication title
Ecology LettersVolume
9Issue
4Pagination
375-382ISSN
1461-023XDepartment/School
School of Natural SciencesPublisher
Blackwell Publishing LtdPlace of publication
9600 Garsington Rd, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox4 2DgRights statement
Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRSRepository Status
- Restricted