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Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 04:26 authored by Barry BrookBarry Brook, Traill, LW, Bradshaw, CJA
Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species’ intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.

History

Publication title

Ecology Letters

Volume

9

Issue

4

Pagination

375-382

ISSN

1461-023X

Department/School

School of Natural Sciences

Publisher

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Place of publication

9600 Garsington Rd, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox4 2Dg

Rights statement

Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Other environmental management not elsewhere classified

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