File(s) under permanent embargo
Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: A review of analytical tools and management implications
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 09:11 authored by Plaganyi, EE, Bell, JD, Bustamante, RH, Dambacher, J, Dennis, DM, Dichmont, CM, Dutra, LXC, Elizabeth FultonElizabeth Fulton, Hobday, AJ, Elizabeth Van PuttenElizabeth Van Putten, Smith, F, Smith, ADM, Zhou, SClimate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them. Consequently, adaptive management loops and supporting tools deserve more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for providing an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to incorporate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of natural resources. System non-linearity can confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses are needed that are robust to unexpected outcomes. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from 'end-to-end' and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to climate change. In this context, the importance of well directed data-collection programs is also emphasised. Lessons from this region, which is advanced with regard to modelling approaches, can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources worldwide.
History
Publication title
Marine and Freshwater ResearchVolume
62Issue
9Pagination
1132-1147ISSN
1323-1650Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
C S I R O PublishingPlace of publication
150 Oxford St, Po Box 1139, Collingwood, Australia, Victoria, 3066Rights statement
Copyright 2011 CSIRORepository Status
- Restricted