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Predictability of Marine Heatwaves off Western Australia Using a Linear Inverse Model

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posted on 2025-01-22, 02:43 authored by Yuxin WangYuxin Wang, Neil HolbrookNeil Holbrook, Jules KajtarJules Kajtar
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) off Western Australia (1108-1168E, 228-328S; herein, WA MHWs) can cause devastating ecological impacts, as was evidenced by the 2011 extreme event. Previous studies suggest that La Niña is the major large-scale driver of WA MHWs, while the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) may also play a role. Here, we investigate historical WA MHWs and their connections to these large-scale climate modes in an ocean model (ACCESS-OM2) simulation driven by a prescribed atmosphere from JRA-55-do over 1959-2018. Rather than analyzing sea surface temperature, the WA MHWs and climate mode indices were characterized and investigated in vertically averaged temperature (VAT) to ;300-m depth to afford the longer ocean dynamic time scales, including remote oceanic connections. We develop a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM; from 358S to 108N, across the Indo-Pacific Ocean), to investigate the relative contributions of La Niña VAT and positive IOD VAT to the predictability of WA VAT MHWs. Using a large ensemble of CS-LIM simulations, we found that ;50% of WA MHWs were preceded about 5 months by La Niña, and 30% of the MHWs by positive IOD about 20 months prior. While precursor La Niña or positive IOD, on their own, were found to correspond with increased WA MHW likelihood in the months following (;2.7 times or ;1.5 times more likely than by chance, respectively), in combination these climate mode phases were found to produce the largest enhancement in MHW likelihood (;3.2 times more likely than by chance). Additionally, we found that stronger and longer La Niña and/or positive IOD tend to lead stronger and longerWA MHWs.

History

Sub-type

  • Article

Publication title

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Volume

36

Issue

18

Pagination

6177-6193:17

eISSN

1520-0442

ISSN

0894-8755

Department/School

Oceans and Cryosphere

Publisher

AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC

Publication status

  • Published

Rights statement

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