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Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts

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posted on 2023-05-19, 16:22 authored by Rodriguez, D, de Voil, P, Hudson, D, Brown, JN, Hayman, P, Marrou, H, Holger MeinkeHolger Meinke
Expected increases in food demand and the need to limit the incorporation of new lands into agriculture to curtail emissions, highlight the urgency to bridge productivity gaps, increase farmers profits and manage risks in dryland cropping. A way to bridge those gaps is to identify optimum combination of genetics (G), and agronomic managements (M) i.e. crop designs (GxM), for the prevailing and expected growing environment (E). Our understanding of crop stress physiology indicates that in hindsight, those optimum crop designs should be known, while the main problem is to predict relevant attributes of the E, at the time of sowing, so that optimum GxM combinations could be informed. Here we test our capacity to inform that “hindsight”, by linking a tested crop model (APSIM) with a skillful seasonal climate forecasting system, to answer “What is the value of the skill in seasonal climate forecasting, to inform crop designs?” Results showed that the GCM POAMA-2 was reliable and skillful, and that when linked with APSIM, optimum crop designs could be informed. We conclude that reliable and skillful GCMs that are easily interfaced with crop simulation models, can be used to inform optimum crop designs, increase farmers profits and reduce risks.

History

Publication title

Scientific Reports

Volume

8

Article number

2231

Number

2231

Pagination

1-13

ISSN

2045-2322

Department/School

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2018 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Forest product traceability and quality assurance

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