Predictive microbiology research capability

Predictive microbiology is a field of specialisation within food microbiology that describes the growth, death and survival of micro-organisms through mathematical expressions. Models, the primary products of predictive microbiology research, are being increasingly used by industry food safety and quality managers, as well as risk assessors, to estimate the fate of foodborne micro-organisms under dynamic food handling and processing conditions. They are utilised in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points food safety systems, such as to identify critical control points and critical limits, and to delineate potential remedial actions when process deviations occur. Importantly, models are most valuable to risk managers when they have been validated for specific food environments and endorsed by regulatory agencies for making food safety decisions. The value of predictive microbiology research to food industries will increase as models are used for real-time measurements of product safety and quality in complex international supply chains.