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Predictive utility of childhood anthropometric measures on adult glucose homeostasis measures: a 20-year cohort study
Methods: A 20-year follow-up of children participating in the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study (n = 2345, aged 7-15 years at baseline). Baseline anthropometric measures were waist circumference (WC), WC adjusted for height, weight adjusted for height, hip circumference, waist-hip-ratio, waist-height-ratio, BMI, conicity index, abdominal volume index (AVI), body adiposity index, and a body shape index. Fasting glucose and insulin levels measured at follow-up were used to define insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR), low beta-cell function (HOMA2-β), high fasting insulin, and impaired fasting glucose (IFG).
Results: All child anthropometric measures were significantly associated with HOMA2-IR, HOMA2-β, and high fasting insulin (relative risk = 1.12-1.55), but not IFG. AVI had the largest area under receiver-operating curve (AUC) in predicting adult HOMA2-IR (AUC, 95% confidence interval: 0.610, 0.584-0.637), HOMA2-β (0.615, 0.588-0.642) and high fasting insulin (0.613, 0.587-0.639). Combining each additional anthropometric measure with AVI did not appreciably increase predictive utility (an increase of 0.001-0.002 in AUC, p > 0.05 for all).
Conclusions: Anthropometric measures from a single time-point in childhood are associated with insulin-related outcomes 20-year later in adulthood. However, overall predictive utility was low and was not substantially enhanced by combining multiple different child anthropometric measures.
Publication titleInternational Journal of Obesity
Department/SchoolMenzies Institute for Medical Research
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of publicationMacmillan Building, 4 Crinan St, London, England, N1 9Xw
Rights statementCopyright 2018 Springer Nature Limited