Probability assessment of burst limit state due to internal corrosion

The failure probability of an oil and gas pipeline, with longitudinally oriented internal corrosion defects, due to burst from internal operating pressure can be estimated through characterization of defect geometry, internal corrosion growth rate, and remaining mechanical hoop strength capacity. A number of candidate models to estimate the corrosion defect depth growth rate were evaluated. Defining a corrosion defect length, the corrosion feature geometry was integrated within burst pressure models, which have been adopted by oil and gas industry standards, codes or recommended practices. On this basis the burst pressure failure probability of a pipeline with internal corrosion defects can be estimated. A comparative analysis of pipe burst limit states and failure estimates were conducted, using Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Second Moment (FOSM) methods. Results from the comparative analysis closely matched and demonstrated consistent trends. Based on the probabilistic assessment, the relative conservatism between burst pressure models was analyzed and recommendations provided to assist designers on model selection.