University of Tasmania

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 16:53 authored by Cheung, WWL, Lam, VWY, Sarmiento, JL, Kearney, K, Reginald WatsonReginald Watson, Pauly, D
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species' distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.


Publication title

Fish and Fisheries








Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies


Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Wild caught fin fish (excl. tuna)