University of Tasmania

File(s) under permanent embargo

Qualitative modelling of invasive species eradication on subantarctic Macquarie Island

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 08:16 authored by Raymond, B, Julie McInnesJulie McInnes, Dambacher, J, Way, S, Bergstrom, DM

1. Invaded ecosystems present complex management issues. This problem is exacerbated in many situations by a lack of knowledge about the ecosystem. However, delaying conservation action to collect further data and so reduce such uncertainty is often either impractical or inadvisable.

2. The Macquarie Island Pest Eradication Project, currently underway, is attempting to eradicate rabbits, rats, and mice from the island. We undertook qualitative modelling of this project, examining a range of likely outcomes and their possible ecological consequences. The results were aggregated across a large number of possible models, in order to account for uncertainty concerning interactions within the ecosystem.

3. The results strongly support the current actions of simultaneous eradication of all three pest species, as simulated eradications of only one or two generally led to continued impacts on the island's native biota. The results also provided support for the anticipated positive outcomes of the project, with predicted recoveries of tall tussock vegetation, and burrow- and surface-nesting seabirds.

4. However, the model predictions also highlighted potential risks: the eradication of mice from the island may not succeed, due in part to the structural position of this species within the ecosystem. Successful eradication of all three target species could potentially release the self-introduced, non-native redpolls and starlings, allowing expansion of their populations, with possible impacts on macro-invertebrates and vegetation.

5. Synthesis and applications. These results demonstrate that qualitative modelling approaches can in some cases deliver consistent results, despite high levels of uncertainty regarding interactions within the underlying ecosystem. Such outcomes can provide assistance in the development of strategic contingency plans and ongoing future management action.


Publication title

Journal of Applied Ecology








Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies


Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Place of publication

9600 Garsington Rd, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox4 2Dg

Rights statement

Copyright 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology; Copyright 2010 British Ecological Society

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Other environmental management not elsewhere classified

Usage metrics

    University Of Tasmania


    Ref. manager