University of Tasmania
Browse
- No file added yet -

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

Download (6.75 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 07:46 authored by Sasse, TP, McNeil, BI, Matear, RJ, Lenton, A
Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem-from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

History

Publication title

Biogeosciences

Volume

12

Issue

20

Pagination

6017-6031

ISSN

1726-4170

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Place of publication

Germany

Rights statement

Copyright 2015 Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems