University of Tasmania

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Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 10:33 authored by Yuan, Z, Khakzad, N, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan, Amyotte, P
In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.


Publication title

Risk Analysis








Australian Maritime College


Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Place of publication


Rights statement

Copyright 2014 Society for Risk Analysis

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Expanding knowledge in engineering