Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 08:57authored byLewandowsky, S, James Risbey, Smithson, M, Newell, BR
In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.
History
Publication title
Climatic Change
Volume
124
Issue
1-2
Pagination
39-52
ISSN
0165-0009
Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publ
Place of publication
Van Godewijckstraat 30, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 3311 Gz
Rights statement
Copyright 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht