University Of Tasmania

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Simulating the effectiveness of prescribed burning at altering wildfire behaviour in Tasmania, Australia

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 14:16 authored by James Furlaud, Grant WilliamsonGrant Williamson, David BowmanDavid Bowman
Prescribed burning is a widely accepted wildfire hazard reduction technique; however, knowledge of its effectiveness remains limited. To address this, we employ simulations of a widely used fire behaviour model across the ecologically diverse Australian island state of Tasmania. We simulate three broad scenarios: (1) no fuel treatment, (2) a maximal treatment, with the most possible prescribed burning within ecological constraints, and (3) 12 hypothetically more implementable state-wide prescribed-burning plans. In all simulations, we standardised fire-weather inputs to represent regionally typical dangerous fire-weather conditions. Statistical modelling showed that an unrealistically large maximal treatment scenario could reduce fire intensity in three flammable vegetation types, and reduce fire probability in almost every vegetation type. However, leverage analysis of the 12 more-realistic implementable plans indicated that such prescribed burning would have only a minimal effect, if any, on fire extent and that none of these prescribed-burning plans substantially reduced fire intensity. The study highlights that prescribed burning can theoretically mitigate wildfire, but that an unrealistically large area would need to be treated to affect fire behaviour across the island. Rather, optimisation of prescribed burning requires careful landscape design at the local scale. Such designs should be based on improved fire behaviour modelling, empirical measurement of fuels and analysis of actual wildfires.


Publication title

International Journal of Wildland Fire








School of Natural Sciences


CSIRO Publishing

Place of publication

150 Oxford St, Po Box 1139, Collingwood, Australia, Victoria, 3066

Rights statement

Journal compilation copyright IAWF 2018

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Public health (excl. specific population health) not elsewhere classified