Squaring the circle: development prospects within the Paris Agreement

The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 marked a major milestone in international efforts to address climate change. One of its standout features are the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which express each countries’ pledges to support the implementation of the Agreement. However, the Nationally Determined Contributions are conditional and predicated on adequate support for implementation. Developing countries who have submitted their NDCs are also striving to strike a balance between taking adequate climate action and meeting their broader development objectives. We argue that the conditionality of NDCs presents a systemic risk to the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. We explore these risks in detail and outline opportunities to mitigate them. However, we conclude with the optimistic prognosis that the review mechanism of the Paris Agreement presents an important opportunity for Parties to develop modalities to ensure transparency and robustness of support for the implementation of NDCs.