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Structural break inference using information criteria in models estimated by two-stage least squares

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 20:36 authored by Hall, AR, Osborn, DR, Sakkas, N
This paper makes two contributions in relation to the use of information criteria for inference on structural breaks when the coefficients of a linear model with endogenous regressors may experience multiple changes. First, we show that suitably defined information criteria yield consistent estimators of the number of breaks, when employed in the second stage of a two-stage least squares (2SLS) procedure with breaks in the reduced form taken into account in the first stage. Second, a Monte Carlo analysis investigates the finite sample performance of a range of criteria based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Hannan–Quinn information criterion (HQIC) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) for equations estimated by 2SLS. Versions of the consistent criteria BIC and HQIC perform well overall when the penalty term weights estimation of each break point more heavily than estimation of each coefficient, while AIC is inconsistent and badly over-estimates the number of true breaks.

History

Publication title

Journal of Time Series Analysis

Volume

36

Issue

5

Pagination

741-762

ISSN

0143-9782

Department/School

TSBE

Publisher

Blackwell Publ Ltd

Place of publication

108 Cowley Rd, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox4 1Jf

Rights statement

Copyright 2015 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Other economic framework not elsewhere classified